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Table 2 Impact of different interventions on the GP workforce

From: General practitioner workforce planning: assessment of four policy directions

Intervention model Year
    2011 2016 2021
    GPs (% of demand)* GPs (% of demand) GPs (% of demand)
Demand         
  Numbers needed to meet population demand   2626 - 2825 - 3010 -
Supply         
  Continue current method of GP recruitment   2560 (97.6) 2629 (93.3) 2828 (94.3)
  Increase training places by 20% in 2011   2560 (97.6) 2660 (94.3) 2988 (99.7)**
  Import GPs from abroad (average 10 per annum) 2587 (98.7)** 2698 (95.8) 2938 (98.3)**
   (average 20 per annum) 2614 (99.8)** 2781 (98.9)** 3064 (102.9)**
  Late retirement (average extra 1 year) 2611 (99.6)** 2692 (95.4) 2880 (95.7)
   (average extra 2 years) 2652 (101.0)** 2751 (97.5) 2934 (97.6)
  Nurse substitution (average 50 nurses per annum) (nurse equivalent to 0.25 GPs) 2704 (98.8)** 3009 (96.5) 3428 (99.3)**
   (nurse equivalent to 0.50 GPs) 2706 (100.4)** 3006 (99.9)** 3426 (104.3)**
  1. * Supply is estimated as a number of GPs but also shown as a percentage of the GPs required as estimated by demand (shown in the first line of the table)
  2. ** Indicates that confidence bounds encompass 100% - in these cases supply could meet demand