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Table 10 Transition probabilities

From: The cost-utility of open prostatectomy compared with active surveillance in early localised prostate cancer

State Event Expected value SE Source*
AS Progression of Gleason Score 0.0263 0.007  
  Other Progression (DRE/PSA) 0.0268 0.007  
  Choosing treatment 0.018 0.005  
  Developing metastatic prostate cancer under active surveillance 0.0023 0.000425 Bill-Axelson [7]; own calculation
  Infection due to biopsy 0.02 0.0075 Cambell-Walsh Urology
  Develop benign prostate hyperplasia Age dependent   Andersson 2004 [48]
  Transurethral resection of the prostate due to benign prostate hyperplasia 0.000462 - Andersson 2004; own calculation
Treatment Perioperative death 0.0044 0.00001  
  Major complication during surgery 0.0472 0.0168  
  Urethral stricture 0.0344 0.002  
Post PE Incontinence and erectile dysfunction short term 0.37 0.0467  
  Erectile dysfunction short term 0.39 0.0384  
  Incontinence short term 0.09 0.0113  
  Keep incontinence and erectile dysfunction long term 0.27 0.0338  
  Keep incontinence long term 0.28 0.035  
  Keep erectile dysfunction long term 0.89 0.0831  
  Disease recurrence 0.00875 0.0032  
  Progression from recurrence to metastatic disease 0.0127 0.0047 Horwitz 2005 [49]
  Death due to prostate cancer after development of metastatic state during hormonal therapy 0.022 0.0225 Alibhai [44]
Post RT Incontinence short term 0.3 0.0835  
  Bowel problems short term 0.18 0.0506  
  Bowel problems and incontinence short term 0.054 0.0068  
  Keep incontinence long term 0.16 0.02  
  Keep bowel problems long term 0.152 0.019  
  Erectile dysfunction long term 0.064 0.016  
  Keep incontinence and bowel problems long term 0.148 0.0148  
IC Sphincter/sling surgery 0.05 0.0075  
ED Prosthesis surgery 0.02 0.0003  
Death Death due to other reasons Age dependent -  
  1. *If not stated otherwise: [45].
  2. AS = Active Surveillance, ED = Erectile Dysfunction.
  3. DRE = Digital Rectal Examination, IC = Incontinence.
  4. PSA = Prostate Specific Antigen.
  5. PE = Prostatectomy.
  6. RT = Radiotherapy.