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Table 3 Participant characteristics from REGARDS data by observed (REGARDS) and model-predicted (Medicare) high risk for CHD events, from the model with pre-specified Medicare variables only

From: Claims-based algorithms for identifying Medicare beneficiaries at high estimated risk for coronary heart disease events: a cross-sectional study

  Model-predicted high risk (Medicare) Model-predicted not high risk (Medicare)
Characteristic* Observed high risk (REGARDS) (true positives) N = 2,217 Observed not high risk (REGARDS) (false positives) N = 343 Observed high risk (REGARDS) (false negatives) N = 999 Observed not high risk (REGARDS) (true negatives) N = 3,056
Age, y 74.0 (5.7) 74.6 (6.0) 73.6 (5.5) 72.4 (5.3)
Male 63.9 57.4 51.3 37.7
Black 34.6 35.0 28.9 27.3
Income < $35,000/y 58.5 58.0 59.3 54.3
Education ≤ High school graduate 45.7 42 44.6 35.5
Current use of statins 57.5 38.2 30.9 25.3
Total cholesterol, mg/dL 172.0 (37.2) 182.9 (38.6) 190.8 (38.3) 197.0 (36.9)
LDL cholesterol, mg/dL 98.7 (32.3) 106.0 (33.9) 114.0 (34.5) 117.0 (32.9)
LDL cholesterol among statin non-users, mg/dL 113.3 (35.1) 115.3 (34.8) 122.7 (35.1) 123.1 (32.5)
HDL cholesterol, mg/dL 47.0 (14.4) 53.9 (17.0) 48.9 (16.5) 56.6 (16.5)
Triglycerides, mg/dL 131.2 (65.9) 114.6 (58.1) 139.9 (65.7) 117.4 (55.5)
Family history of MI 21.9 19.0 19.0 17.2
Current cigarette smoking 9.2 6.1 15.0 7.0
Body mass index, kg/m2 29.2 (5.5) 28.4 (5.6) 28.1 (5.2) 27.3 (5.2)
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg 132.7 (17.6) 129.3 (15.0) 134.2 (17.4) 127.3 (15.2)
Diastolic blood pressure, mm Hg 74.9 (9.7) 75.1 (9.0) 77 (9.9) 75.1 (8.9)
Blood glucose, mg/dL 114.2 (38.4) 95.6 (12.6) 102.9 (29.8) 92.4 (10.1)
C-reactive protein, mg/L 4.9 (9.3) 4.4 (10.7) 5.2 (9.6) 3.9 (7.1)
Hypertension 76.0 66.5 73.5 53.5
Metabolic syndrome 57.8 32.9 46.7 23.6
Diabetes 54.0 0.0† 18.0 0.0†
Coronary heart disease 55.3 0.0† 40.1 0.0†
Acute MI in prior year 0.0† 0.0†
Peripheral arterial disease 5.5 0.0† 4.8 0.0†
Abdominal aortic aneurysm 4.0 0.0† 1.9 0.0†
Carotid artery disease 7.7 0.0† 4.4 0.0†
Stroke 16.2 0.0† 14.5 0.0†
  1. Abbreviations: HDL high density lipoprotein, LDL low density lipoprotein, MI myocardial infarction.
  2. *Numbers are column percentages or means (standard deviations). Income was missing for 914 participants, education for 4, body mass index for 16, and C-reactive protein for 164.
  3. †By definition, participants not at high risk for CHD events did not have a history of CHD or risk equivalents according to REGARDS study data.
  4. ‡The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) requires the figure be redacted because the cell contained fewer than 11 participants, or would allow a number fewer than 11 participants to be deduced in another cell.