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Table 1 Initial population health at 65 and transition matrix at 75 for men in 2050, under different health scenarios

From: The effect of trends in health and longevity on health services use by older adults

Population health for men at 65
  Share in 2050
Scenario Good Moderate Poor Deceased
Baseline (1o, 1 ++, 2o, 3o) 0.66 0.27 0.06 0.00
Compression (2 +, 2 ++) 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
Dynamic (3 +, 3 ++) 0.51 0.44 0.05 0.00
Transition matrix for men at 75 in 2050
State at t State at t+1
  Good Moderate Poor Deceased
Baseline
Good 0.87 0.07 0.04 0.02
Moderate 0.00 0.87 0.10 0.03
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.81 0.15
1o Expansion of morbidity
Good 0.92 0.04 0.02 0.01
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.88 0.09
1 ++ Expansion of morbidity, high life exp.
Moderate 0.00 0.95 0.04 0.01
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.90 0.06
2o Compression of morbidity. Transition
Good 0.94 0.03 0.02 0.01
Moderate 0.00 0.94 0.05 0.01
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.81 0.15
2 + Compression of morbidity. Transition and initial
Good 0.93 0.04 0.02 0.01
Moderate 0.00 0.93 0.06 0.02
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.81 0.15
2 ++ Compression of morbidity, high life exp. Transition and initial
Good 0.96 0.02 0.01 0.01
Moderate 0.00 0.96 0.03 0.01
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.81 0.15
3o Dynamic equilibrium. Transition
Good 0.87 0.10 0.02 0.01
Moderate 0.00 0.94 0.05 0.01
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.84 0.12
3 + Dynamic equilibrium. Transition and initial
Good 0.87 0.10 0.02 0.01
Moderate 0.00 0.94 0.04 0.01
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.84 0.12
3 ++ Dynamic equilibrium, high life exp. Transition and initial
Good 0.87 0.11 0.01 0.01
Moderate 0.00 0.97 0.03 0.01
Poor 0.00 0.04 0.86 0.11