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Table 3 External validation and recalibration of models predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality

From: Validity of the CR-POSSUM model in surgery for colorectal cancer in Spain (CCR-CARESS study) and comparison with other models to predict operative mortality

   In-hospital mortality 30-day mortality
  Validation Recalibration   Validation Recalibration
Model N Deaths included AUC (95% CI) H-L p- value AUC (95% CI) H-L p-value Deaths included AUC (95% CI) H-L p-value AUC (95% CI) H-L p-value
POSSUM 2119 27/41 74.8 (65.6–84.0) < 0.001 a75.6 (66.3–84.9) 0.548 32/47 76.3 (68.2–84.3) < 0.001 a77.0 (68.9–85.2) 0.250
P-POSSUM 2119 27/41 75.7 (66.4–85.0) < 0.001   77.1 (68.9–85.2) < 0.001
CR-POSSUM 2293 38/41 73.6 (65.2–82.1) < 0.001 75.5 (67.3–83.7) 0.261 45/47 73.2 (65.9–80.6) < 0.001 74.2 (67.1–81.2) 0.463
AFC 1465 23/41 NA NA 68.2 (56.6–79.7) 0.994 26/47 NA NA 68.6 (58.0–79.1) 0.984
IRCS 2653 38/47 74.4 (65.8–83.1) < 0.001 76.2 (68.0–84.5) 0.853 44/47 72.9 (65.3–80.4) < 0.001 74.5 (67.1–81.9) 0.904
  1. AUC Area under the curve, H-L Hosmer-Lemeshow, NA Not available, aThe equations for POSSUM and P-POSSUM are the same in the recalibration process