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Parameter

Distribution

Mean

Range


Outcomes

BMI reduction

Normal

0.71

0.08

–

1.35

(95% CI of mean)

Weight loss

Normal

1.85

0.16

–

3.55

(95% CI of mean)

CRP reduction, mg/L

Normal

1.15

0.15

–

2.16

(95% CI of mean)

Simple 7 increase

Normal

0.67

0.14

–

1.21

(95% CI of mean)

Annual ASCVD risk reduction

Log normal

0.00096

0.00043

–

0.00149

(95% CI of mean)

Costs, per person

Resources of SHHC

Υ, gamma

775

581

–

968

(±25% of mean)

Resources of SHHCCON

Υ, gamma

667

500

–

833

(±25% of mean)

Participant of SHHC

Υ, gamma

1087

815

–

1359

(±25% of mean)

Participant of SHHCCON

Υ, gamma

887

665

–

1108

(±25% of mean)

Medical cost, 2013 $

CHD (nonfatal mi)

Υ, gamma

62,200

52,870

–

71,530

(±15% of mean)

Stroke (nonfatal)

Υ, gamma

20,509

17,433

–

23,585

(±15% of mean)

Followup visit, 2013 $

Υ, gamma

75

53

–

98

(±30% of mean)

QALYs

Women age 55–64, BMI 30–40

β, beta

0.798

0.678

–

0.918

(±15% of mean)

CHD

β, beta

0.697

0.592

–

0.802

(±15% of mean)

Stroke

β, beta

0.590

0.502

–

0.679

(±15% of mean)

 The incidence rates are not the assumed CHD or stroke rates for the hypothetical population in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The ratio of the two incidence rates is used in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis to partition the reduction of an ASCVD event into a CHD event reduction and a stroke event reduction